From a new SurveyUSA poll obtained by Roll Call (likely special election voters, 4/27-29):
Don Cazayoux (D): 50
Woody Jenkins (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Those are some very encouraging numbers, considering that voters are heading to the polls to decide this race on Saturday. But here’s the really amazing thing:
Despite enduring two weeks of constant attacks on the air from Republicans and independent conservative groups, Cazayoux had a net favorability rating of plus-15 (43 percent favorable, 28 percent unfavorable and 28 percent neutral or unfamiliar), according to the poll.
Jenkins, who came into the race with much higher name identification but who was known as a controversial figure, had a minus-13 favorability rating (36 percent favorable, 49 percent unfavorable and 14 percent neutral or unfamiliar).
So let’s get this straight: despite $436K spent by the NRCC, $100K by the Club For Growth, $500K by Freedom’s Watch, and another $150K or so by Leonard Grisby on an effort to re-brand Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and lover of Barack Obama, Cazayoux still has higher favorability ratings than Woody Jenkins. Remarkable.
Special election: 5/3.
from Toss Up to Lean Dem now after seeing this. Glad to see Cazayoux in the lead, especially from a polling firm that isn’t doing it for the sake of an internal poll.
I’m too lazy. I’m just going to wait till Cazayoux wins it and then adjust all the numbers and pull LA-06 off the list. Interesting thing here. I put all the fundraising numbers together…
MS-01:
Travis Childers – $276,051
DCCC – $1,104,006
Democrats MS-01 Total – $1,380,057
————————
Greg Davis – $577,781
NRCC – $594,518
Republicans MS-01 Total – $1,172,299
LA-06:
Don Cazayoux – $809,806
DCCC – $912,000
Democrats LA-06 Total – $1,721,806
————————-
Woody Jenkins – $462,038
NRCC – $436,000
Third Party Total: $755,000
Republicans LA-06 Total – $1,653,038
I was getting a little worried about this one with all that money being spent calling Cazayoux a radical liberal. If that’s not working in this heavily Repub district, then they’re really doomed this year.
Foster was up by a slightly smaller margin, and that ended up being pretty accurate…
WE ARE 20 POINTS DOWN; this is crunch time, the wind is in our favor; let’s not blow it now; GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV, GOTV and, did i say GOTV…………
god, i hope cazayoux wins. then we can hear the republicans trash jenkins the way they trashed oberweis.
i do love that line, too. thanks.
Note to self: get Roll Call subscription.
A Cazayoux win by mid to high single digits (probably high).
Also the poll shows only 18% black voter makeup. According to the 2000 census the district was 33.3% black and that’s not counting all of the new Katrina evacuees. I know they have lower turnout… but it it really THAT much lower? And I’m not buying Jenkins getting 15% of their vote either.